Its a 50% chance to win or lose on draw
No.
http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Player_identification_numberEach player posses a number called PID, which is 'handed out' to players by the server when they log in. In Emps, the PID each player gets should be random, and is not tied to the order they log in or the length of their current game session like it was in RS Classic.
''You could approximate your player I.D. by following a player and having them run. The delay between your friend moving and your character moving was believed to be caused by your player I.D. If the delay was longer than normal, you have a higher player I.D. than the other player.''
Players with low PID are prioritized over players with high PID. If a players gets unlucky and gets a high PID, the chances of winning even one draw duel are really, really low.
Having 50% win chance on draw duels would require each player to be force logged out and in BEFORE the duel, so they get a new unknown random PID that cannot be affected by any player actions during a duel. If players were force logged after the duel, they could simply keep manually logging in and out to ''find'' a low PID to get prioritized first. If you log out during a duel, you lose.
Players also cannot have the same PID. This means that the problem can ONLY be fixed by disposing the current system completely and replacing it with a new one. This was done in RS only a bit over year ago, thus making it very unlikely that Thomy could make this happen.