I might be making up stuff, but that's pretty much what I've experienced - using out your luck at the start and later on just paying back the kill counts to equalize the chances. Well I guess Thomy you're right, it's good as it is now.

I like that idea but if we said that 0.5% chance mean 1-200 kills but thats not sure that you will get loot at 200 kills for example alugis got at nex 800 kills dry so he killed more than thats chance to get a drop.
nex have many 0.5% chance drop how that work at this idea.

I like that idea but if we said that 0.5% chance mean 1-200 kills but thats not sure that you will get loot at 200 kills for example alugis got at nex 800 kills dry so he killed more than thats chance to get a drop.
nex have many 0.5% chance drop how that work at this idea.

You guys have literally no idea how probability math works and you're still complaining about it.

0,5% (= 1/200) of getting loot means that ON AVERAGE you will receive A SINGLE drop every 200 kills. You can go above and beyond that. It is NEVER guaranteed to get a drop within 200 kills. For example, if you throw a 6-sided dice you have 1/6 of landing on a six. However, you can easily go over ten throws ''dry'' on a six. You are never guaranteed to land on a six. You will always have a higher probability of rolling any number between one and five than rolling a six.

Nex drops work like a 200-sided dice. One of those sides is an armor drop, and the other 199 sides are the regular drops. You can calculate the probability of getting a drop in 200 kills like this:

p(reg.loot) = probability of getting a regular drop
num.of.kills = the number of kills you want to calculate the probability for

You only have 63,3% chance of getting a drop withing 200 kills. The function converges to P = 1, meaning that the probability gets closer to 1 a.k.a. 100% but it will never reach it since you are never guaranteed to get a single drop. We can even plot the function into a graph to show that.



The graph gets extremely close to 1 but never reaches it. X-axis shows the number of kills.

I doubt Alugis went over 200 kills dry on every single drop of his, but neither of you want to admit it because it would weaken the ''point'' you're trying to make.

You guys have literally no idea how probability math works and you're still complaining about it.

0,5% (= 1/200) of getting loot means that ON AVERAGE you will receive A SINGLE drop every 200 kills. You can go above and beyond that. It is NEVER guaranteed to get a drop within 200 kills. For example, if you throw a 6-sided dice you have 1/6 of landing on a six. However, you can easily go over ten throws ''dry'' on a six. You are never guaranteed to land on a six. You will always have a higher probability of rolling any number between one and five than rolling a six.

Nex drops work like a 200-sided dice. One of those sides is an armor drop, and the other 199 sides are the regular drops. You can calculate the probability of getting a drop in 200 kills like this:

p(reg.loot) = probability of getting a regular drop
num.of.kills = the number of kills you want to calculate the probability for

You only have 63,3% chance of getting a drop withing 200 kills. The function converges to P = 1, meaning that the probability gets closer to 1 a.k.a. 100% but it will never reach it since you are never guaranteed to get a single drop. We can even plot the function into a graph to show that.



The graph gets extremely close to 1 but never reaches it. X-axis shows the number of kills.

I doubt Alugis went over 200 kills dry on every single drop of his, but neither of you want to admit it because it would weaken the ''point'' you're trying to make.

Also your previous kills don't affect the drop rate at all, if you have already got 200 kills with no drops then the likelihood of getting a drop is still 1/200, even if you've got 2,000 kills with no drops then the likelihood of you getting the drop before 2,200th kill is still 63.3%. Just wanted to clarify that you're always at the far-left side of the graph.
If you don't understand how the drop rate could be true if that's the case then how it works is that with a very large amount of kills you should expect your drop rate to get close to 1/200, not because drops become more common after a dry streak or less common after you've gotten multiple rare drops in a row, but because eventually the luck you had in the beginning will become statistically insignificant. So even if your first kills were very lucky and you got 10 1/200 drops in your first 200 kills giving you a drop rate of 10/200, then by the time you're at 10,000 kills even if you've gotten 60 more of those drops in that time which is still more than 1/200, your drop rate would've become 1.4/200 and even if you continued being luckier than expected then by the time you get to 100,000 kills your drop rate would likely have gotten even closer to 1/200. The same is true if you're very unlucky and you get only 3 drops in the first 2,000 kills, giving you a drop rate of only 0.3/200, by the time you get to 10,000 or 100,000 kills even if you continue being more unlucky than expected your drop rate would likely get closer to 1/200, because the last 8,000 kills or 98,000 kills outweigh the first 2,000 kills, making whatever luck you had or didn't have in the beginning insignificant.

tldr; idea itself is good. Can we focus on it?

Quote from: Someone12116 on April 19, 2018, 12:52:33 pm

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Yeah, the exact drop probability always remains the same. You always have 199x higher chance of receiving junk instead of a rare drop at Nex on any kill.

tldr; idea itself is good. Can we focus on it?

No it isn't. Making the supposedly "too easy" game even easier won't solve anything. The game is already flooded with items with people having no cash to purchase them. This obviously excludes the cash stacks of stakers, but even they don't have any reason to purchase the items because they don't have any need for them.

Many thanks for the probability illustration and explanations. I think it shows really well why the system shouldn't be changed and how it works. Increasing drop rates will just shift the curve towards drops being more common.